But while each of the three frontrunners could conceivably win, most predictions have it coming down to 12 Years and Gravity, with 12 Years emerging last-minute as the slight favourite to win. And it does make sense: it's won the most Best Picture precursors, and has the obvious advantage in genre and subject matter to the traditionally conservative Academy. But Gravity's strengths can't be ignored. It's almost guaranteed to win more total awards than any other film (with wins for Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Cinematography nearly set in stone), and Alfonso Cuaron is the large favourite to win Best Director no matter what happens. But notably, it doesn't have a screenplay nomination, and with only Sandra Bullock's performance to draw on, it won't have the above-the-line support amongst the Academy that 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle will.
And while I don't think that American Hustle is going to win, its level of support there could be the tipping point towards either of the two favourites. Because for the most part, I think that the more votes American Hustle gets, the more it will siphon them away from 12 Years a Slave and give Gravity a chance to take the prize. Gravity has obvious support from the technical branches and younger Academy members, and the overseas contingent is probably split evenly between it and 12 Years. But the acting branch of the Academy has always been its largest by far, and they were the ones that propelled Hustle to four acting nominations including unexpected ones for Christian Bale and Amy Adams. If the actors continue to show their support for David O. Russell's film, it probably won't be enough to propel any of the four actors to an individual statue, but their votes in the Best Picture race are far more likely to take away 12 Years a Slave than they will Gravity. I'm going a bit against my gut with my pick here, but I can't shake that nagging feeling that it might just turn out that way.
And how the technical awards play out as the broadcast goes on will be telling. Watch categories like Costume Design, Production Design, and Film Editing. If they end up going to Gravity, we could be heading for a sweep; likewise, if 12 Years a Slave picks up unexpected wins in those categories it will almost certainly win Best Picture at the end. If those categories end up being spread around to films like Hustle, Captain Phillips, and The Great Gatsby, then we'll still be in suspense all the way up to when the final envelope is opened.
My predictions follow (and yes, I'm picking Bad Grandpa to win Best Makeup, because why not? I know if I were an Academy member I wouldn't be able to resist voting for it):
BEST PICTURE: Gravity
2) 12 Years a Slave
3) American Hustle
(Dallas Buyers Club; Captain Phillips; The Wolf of Wall Street; Her; Nebraska; Philomena)
BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
2) Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
3) David O. Russell - American Hustle
(Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street; Alexander Payne - Nebraska)
BEST ACTOR: Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
2) Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
3) Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
(Bruce Dern - Nebraska; Christan Bale - American Hustle)
BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
2) Sandra Bullock - Gravity
3) Amy Adams - American Hustle
(Judi Dench - Philomena; Meryl Streep - August: Osage County)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
2) Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
3) Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
(Bradley Cooper - American Hustle; Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
2) Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
3) June Squibb - Nebraska
(Julia Roberts - August: Osage County; Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: American Hustle - David O. Russell and Eric Singer
2) Her - Spike Jonze
3) Nebraska - Bob Nelson
(Dallas Buyers Club; Blue Jasmine)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 12 Years a Slave - John Ridley
2) The Wolf of Wall Street - Terence Winter
3) Captain Phillips - Billy Ray
(Philomena; Before Midnight)
BEST FILM EDITING: Captain Phillips - Christopher Rouse
2) Gravity - Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger
3) American Hustle - Alan Baumgarten, Jay Cassidy, and Crispin Struthers
(12 Years a Slave; Dallas Buyers Club)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Gravity - Emmanuel Lubezki
2) Nebraska - Phedon Papamichael
3) Prisoners - Roger Deakins
(Inside Llewyn Davis; The Grandmaster)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Great Gatsby - Catherine Martin and Beverly Dunn
2) Gravity - Andy Nicholson and Rosie Goodwin
3) 12 Years a Slave - Adam Stockhausen and Alice Baker
(Her; American Hustle)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: American Hustle - Michael Wilkinson
2) The Great Gatsby - Catherine Martin
3) 12 Years a Slave - Patricia Norris
(The Invisible Woman; The Grandmaster)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Gravity
2) The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
3) Iron Man 3
(Star Trek Into Darkness; The Lone Ranger)
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
2) Dallas Buyers Club
3) The Lone Ranger
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: Frozen - "Let It Go" by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
2) Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom - "Ordinary Love" by U2
3) Despicable Me 2 - "Happy" by Pharrell Williams
4) Her - "The Moon Song" by Karen Orzolek and Spike Jonze
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Gravity - Steven Price
2) Philomena - Alexandre Desplat
3) Saving Mr. Banks - Thomas Newman
(Her; The Book Thief)
BEST SOUND MIXING: Gravity
2) Captain Phillips
3) Lone Survivor
(The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; Inside Llewyn Davis)
BEST SOUND EDITING: Gravity
2) Captain Phillips
3) All Is Lost
(Lone Survivor; The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Hunt - Denmark
2) The Great Beauty - Italy
3) Omar - Palestine
(The Broken Circle Breakdown - Belgium; The Missing Picture - Cambodia)
2) The Wind Rises
3) Despicable Me 2
(The Croods; Ernest & Celestine)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: The Act of Killing
2) 20 Feet from Stardom
3) The Square
(Dirty Wars; Cutie and the Boxer)
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